Royals continue set with Orioles in Kansas City
Baseball Betting Lines
07/30/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles hope a flurry of changes can help
lead to more results like the team produced on Thursday.
The revamped club will set its sights on a second straight victory over the
Kansas City Royals, who'll be out to put an end to a five-game losing streak
in tonight's clash between the teams from Kauffman Stadium.
Baltimore announced prior to Thursday's game it had hired Buck Showalter to
serve as the team's new manager, although the former Yankees, Diamondbacks and
Rangers skipper won't officially take over until the Orioles return from their
current road trip on Tuesday. Baltimore fired field general Dave Trembley on
June 4, with interim manager Juan Samuel having gone 17-31 since assuming
those duties.
Showalter won't have Miguel Tejada to put in his lineup, however, as the
Orioles traded the former American League MVP to San Diego on Thursday in
exchange for minor league pitcher Wynn Pelzer.
Baltimore did just fine without Tejada in last night's opener of this four-
game series, rallying for a 6-5 extra-inning victory to stop a five-game
slide. Ty Wigginton, another Orioles player rumored to be on the trading
block, drove in the winning run with a sacrifice fly in the top of the 11th
inning.
The Orioles trailed 5-3 after five innings, but scored single runs in both the
sixth and eighth frames to draw even. Corey Patterson knotted the score with a
solo homer off Royals reliever Robinson Tejeda with two out in the top of the
eighth.
"Going over the scouting report on him, we knew he had a good fastball,"
Patterson said of Tejeda. "So I told myself to just say 'heater.' In the back
of my mind, I thought he was going to throw me something off-speed and I kept
fouling them. He didn't and obviously during that at-bat, when you see the
same pitch, you're going to get a pretty good track on it."
In the 11th, Cesar Izturis worked a leadoff walk against Kansas City's Blake
Wood (0-2) and moved to third on a Brian Roberts single before crossing the
plate on Wigginton's fly ball to left.
"It just boils down to a leadoff walk," said Wood afterward. "You just can't
do that [with the] game tied like that. I was just trying to be a little too
fine."
Both Wigginton and Patterson finished with two RBI and Nick Markakis added a
solo homer for Baltimore, which received a combined 7 2/3 scoreless innings
from its relief corps after starter Brian Matusz was rocked for five runs over
the first 3 1/3 frames. David Hernandez (5-7) picked up the win by shutting
out the Royals in the ninth and 10th.
Kansas City, which has now lost 14 of its last 17 contests, received two hits
and an RBI out of Yuniesky Betancourt in its most recent setback.
The Royals will be trying to get back in the win column tonight, as well as
enabling the recently-acquired Sean O'Sullivan to notch his first victory with
his new team. Tonight the young right-hander will be making his second start
since being obtained by Kansas City from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
last week as part of a trade that sent infielder Alberto Callaspo to the
Halos.
O'Sullivan's Royals debut did not go well, as the 22-year-old was tagged for
five runs and a pair of homers over five innings in a road loss to the New York Yankees on Sunday. Ironically, he defeated the defending world champions
in Yankee Stadium in his final start as a Angel, tossing six innings of two-
run ball and logging four strikeouts back on July 20.
The San Diego native made two starts against Baltimore as a rookie last season
and received a no-decision both times, although he allowed 10 runs and 16 hits
over a combined 9 2/3 innings of work.
Rookie Jake Arrieta gets the call for the Orioles tonight and will be out to
improve upon a pair of shaky starts to begin the second half. The highly-
regarded righty surrendered five runs in a 5 1/3-inning no-decision against
Tampa Bay on July 20, then followed up by permitting five runs and walking
four batters while lasting only four frames in Sunday's 10-4 loss to
Minnesota.
Both of those outings took place at home, so perhaps leaving the hitter-
friendly confines of Camden Yards will work to Arrieta's benefit. He's done
well in limited action on the road, having compiled a 2-1 record and a 3.18
earned run average in four away assignments.
In nine overall starts since being promoted from the minors in June, Arrieta
has gone 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA.
These teams split a pair of meetings in Baltimore back in May, as well as a
four-game series held at Kauffman Stadium last season.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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