Rangers, Blues tangle at MSG
Hockey Betting Lines
03/18/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of teams trying to break into the playoff picture
in their respective conferences will meet tonight in the Big Apple as the
New York Rangers host the St. Louis Blues at Madison Square Garden.
The Rangers have 71 points and are three behind Boston for the eighth and
final postseason berth in the East. Meanwhile, St. Louis is seven points
back of Detroit for the Western Conference's last playoff berth.
Neither New York nor St. Louis helped their postseason chances on Tuesday,
as they both dropped home contests in regulation.
New York was handed a 3-1 setback by Montreal despite heading into the third
period tied with the Canadiens at 1-1. Sergei Kostitsyn's goal in the third
gave Montreal the lead for good and Tomas Plekanec added an empty-netter.
Sean Avery scored the lone goal for the Rangers, giving him three goals in
New York's last two games. Henrik Lundqvist was strong between the pipes
with 32 saves in the losing effort.
"We just have to approach every game like it is the last," said Lundqvist of
his team's playoff push.
Lundqvist, who is expected to get his 61st start of the season tonight, has
held opponents to two goals or fewer in nine of his last 11 games. He has a
6-3-2 record with a 2.36 goals against average and a .940 save percentage over
the span. The Swedish backstop was saddled with a loss in his only career
appearance against St. Louis.
Meanwhile, the Blues were dealt a loss by visiting Colorado on Tuesday as
Peter Mueller recorded two goals and an assist to lead the Avalanche to the
5-3 win at Scottrade Center.
Alexander Steen, Patrik Berglund and David Perron scored for the Blues, who
have lost two straight. Erik Johnson registered two assists, and Chris Mason
stopped only 21-of-26 shots in defeat.
Tonight marks the finale of a three-game homestand for the Rangers, who are
just 15-16-6 as the host this year. However, St. Louis has a solid 20-11-4
record as the guest.
The Rangers lost a 4-1 decision in St. Louis on January 16, giving the Blues
their sixth win in the last nine meetings in this series.
<< Bruins set for rematch with Cooke, Penguins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time the Penguins and Bruins met, Boston wound up
losing its best offensive player to a concussion after a questionable hit by
Pittsburgh's Matt Cooke.
Cooke is expected to be in the lineup tonight when Pittsburgh
<< Road-weary Hornets visit Nuggets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sole possession of second place in the Western Conference
is on the line for the Denver Nuggets tonight as they get ready to host the
reeking New Orleans Hornets.
Denver is currently deadlocked with idle Dallas for the No.
<< Magic visit Heat in possible playoff preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In-state rivals square off in the shadow of South Beach
Thursday when the Miami Heat play host to the playoff-bound Orlando Magic.
The Magic have been on a roll recently and are currently the second seed in
the Eastern Con
<< Bucs sign S Sean Jones
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed free agent safety
Sean Jones to a two-year contract on Wednesday.
Jones spent the 2009 season in Philadelphia and started nine games. He had 61
tackles, two interceptions and a sac
<< Blues' playoff odds getting longer
ST. LOUIS (AP) -The St. Louis Blues are clinging to the hope of another miracle run to the playoffs. Time is running short, especially after the latest home-ice failure.The Blues are seven points out of the final Western Conference playoff spot with
Again without Ovechkin, Capitals visit Hurricanes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Capitals hardly seemed to miss Alex
Ovechkin on Tuesday night and the Southeast Division champs will shoot for
another win this evening without the Russian superstar.
Ovechkin will complete a two-game suspen
Thrashers host Sens in battle between struggling clubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of struggling Eastern Conference inhabitants get
together for a key late-season matchup tonight at Philips Arena, where the
Atlanta Thrashers hope to strengthen their fading playoff hopes when they take
on the visiting
Devils visit surging Maple Leafs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Although it's highly unlikely to result in a playoff spot,
the Toronto Maple Leafs have put together one of their best stretches of the
season over the past week. They'll try to sustain that newfound momentum into
a three-gam
Surging Wild head to Nashville for key late-season clash >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both the Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators are riding
three-game winning streaks, but only one club is in the playoff picture.
The Wild look to continue their playoff push this evening at Bridgestone Arena
versus the
Road-weary Sabres make a stop in Tampa >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - An inability to win on the road has plagued the Buffalo
Sabres as of late. The Northeast Division leaders will attempt to reverse that
negative trend when the team visits a venue it's had great success in during
recent years
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
read more
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