Maple Leafs' stock slowly rising
Hockey Betting Lines
09/03/2010 -
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is guarded optimism surrounding the
Toronto Maple Leafs heading into the 2010-11 NHL season, much of that due to
the astute moves made this offseason by general manager Brian Burke.
Through trades and free agency, Burke has assembled an interesting mix of
forwards that should compete at a higher level than last season, one that saw
the Leafs finish 25th in goals scored per game with only 2.56.
One of the more celebrated moves was the acquisition of hard-nosed forward
Kris Versteeg. The 24-year-old, who was acquired via trade from the Stanley
Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks, brings an impressive resume that includes 42
goals and 97 points spread out over the past two seasons in Chicago. He will
get every opportunity to build on those solid numbers with the Leafs, as the
organization has him penciled in among the top six forwards heading into
training camp.
Where Versteeg will help light the lamp, fellow newcomer Colby Armstrong will
be asked to bring a physical brand of hockey that has been lacking in Toronto.
The gritty 27-year-old forward signed a three-year, $3 million contract with
the Leafs after putting up decent numbers last year with the Atlanta Thrashers, scoring 15 goals and 29 points in 79 games.
His toughness will most likely be utilized on the third line, but through the
course of a season his versatility could make him serviceable as a second line
winger. Think of Armstrong as this team's version of Darcy Tucker. Burke also
signed free agent forward Clarke MacArthur to a one-year, $1.1 million deal to
help solidify the top two lines, a relative bargain if he can produce to the
level Burke thinks he's capable of.
MacArthur had a career-high 35 points, including 16 goals, last season in
splitting time between Buffalo and Atlanta, and sees himself as a premier
scorer that hasn't been given the chance to succeed. On the Leafs however, he
will be given every chance in the world to prove his worth. Other than these
additions, the team will be similar to last year's squad, while young pivots
like Tyler Bozak and Nazim Kadri have hopefully matured enough to assume
larger roles with the club. Serious questions remain as to whether these young
guns have progressed enough to center a group of solid wingers, but only time
will tell.
At this point, the closest thing the Leafs have to a proven center is Mikhail
Grabovski, who is coming of a disastrous 2009-10 season in which he scored
only 10 goals. With a contract posing an annual cap hit of $2.9 million,
"Grabo" will need to be much better. Where this Leafs team really has a chance
to shine is on the defensive end.
Although the Leafs defense didn't show it last year, on paper they have one of
the stronger back ends in the league. With prized acquisition Dion Phaneuf
leading a group of proven defenders and Tomas Kaberle back with the club,
moving the puck with ease while playing a bruising physical style will define
this years' defense corps.
Mike Komisarek, who played only 34 games last year before undergoing season
ending shoulder surgery, is healthy and should come closer to resembling the
type of player his $4.5 million annual salary suggests.
With no sure bets on the offensive end, the defense will be leaned upon
heavily to protect the goaltenders this season.
The improved tandem of J.S. Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson gives the Leafs a
solid pair of netminders, something they haven't been able to claim much of
the last three campaigns. Giguere, 33, joined the Leafs near the end of last
season via trade from the Anaheim Ducks and the former Conn Smythe Trophy
winner and Stanley Cup champion was stellar in his 15 starts. In those games,
he posted a 2.49 goals-against average with a .916 save percentage to go along
with two shutouts, reclaiming some of the form that he showed during his years
with the Ducks.
The Leafs are hoping the 6-foot-1, 202-pound Giguere can find that form again,
something that would only add to the confidence of this relatively young squad
as the season progresses. Giguere will also be expected to mentor the
franchise's potential goaltender of the future in Jonas Gustavsson. The 25-
year old Swede, who rose to prominence by backstopping his former team
Farjestad to a Swedish Elite League title in 2009, had an effective rookie
campaign last year with the Leafs. The one they call "The Monster" showed
great fortitude during his first NHL season battling a heart condition and two
minor heat procedures, while still managing to start 39 games and earn 16
wins.
Gustavsson, who plays a similar style to Giguere's, should progress even
further under the tutelage of his older and wiser goaltending partner and
renowned goaltending coach Francois Allaire. Even with optimism abound heading
into the fall, Leafs fans should still approach this season with tempered
expectations.
Improving upon their 30-38-14 record is likely, while challenging for a spot
in the postseason may not be. The Eastern Conference is full of offensively
superior teams that will have to be leapfrogged in order to gain a chance to
compete for the Cup. With that being said, if some of the youngsters up front
can break out while helping the team find an offensive groove, the Leafs have
the defense and goaltending to take them to the next level.
<< Stosur, Dementieva first into U.S. Open fourth round
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Samantha Stosur of Australia and
Russia's Elena Dementieva were third-round winners Friday at the U.S. Open.
The fifth-seeded Stosur thumped Italy's Sara Errani, 6-2, 6-3, while the 12th-
seeded Dement
<< Surging Wizards seek more road success at Union
Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kansas City coach Peter Vermes said last week's
2-0 win at the Los Angeles Galaxy was "probably our best 90-minute performance
of the whole season," but the surging Wizards still have work to do to qualify
for the
<< Seattle, New England set to meet at Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seattle Sounders FC travel to New England to
take on the Revolution, hoping to extend their current unbeaten run in Major
League Soccer play to nine games.
Seattle (9-8-5) have rebounded nicely from an
<< Nationwide to end tour sponsorship in 2012
Dublin, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nationwide Insurance has closed one door and
opened another.
The company said Friday it will no longer sponsor the PGA Tour's developmental
circuit when its contract runs out after the 2012 season. B
<< Penguins sign Mike Comrie
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins have signed forward
Mike Comrie to a one-year contract worth $500,000.
Comrie spent last season with Edmonton and registered 13 goals with eight
assists for 21 points in 43
Morgan gets eight games, Volstad six after Nats/Marlins brawl >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington Nationals outfielder Nyjer Morgan
was suspended for eight games and Florida Marlins pitcher Chris Volstad was
given a six-game penalty for their roles in Wednesday's benches-clearing
inciden
Jimenez shoots 61 for European Masters lead >>
Crans Montana, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Five days after locking down his
Ryder Cup spot, Miguel Angel Jimenez came close to locking down a piece of
golf history.
Jimenez flirted with a 59 Friday during the second round of the European
Report: Broncos' LenDale White out for season >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver Broncos running back LenDale White is
reportedly out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon.
The Denver Post cited an NFL source in its report on Friday.
White was hurt during the second quarter
Fire forward McBride to retire after season >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Fire forward Brian McBride will retire
at the end of the 2010 season, the Major League Soccer team announced on
Friday.
"Brian's retirement is a bittersweet moment for the Fire, Major League Soc
Clijsters rolls into U.S. Open fourth round >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Kim Clijsters was a
third-round winner Friday at the U.S. Open.
The second-seeded Belgian dropped the first three games of her match against
27th-seeded Czech Petra Kvitova, but
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
read more
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