Bracket Breakdown
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
03/18/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Being a member of the selection committee
for the NCAA Tournament is a thankless job that always comes with harsh
criticism. This year is no different. While there were no real egregious
omissions (perhaps Mississippi State), the committee's seeding procedures have
to be called to task.
If it is how a team finishes the season as opposed to how it starts the
campaign that is most important, than there is really no justification for
Villanova - which began the year on fire but faltered big time down the
stretch - receiving a two-seed. On the flip side, not far from the Villanova
campus, the Temple Owls, who won the Atlantic 10 regular and tournament titles
and beat Villanova head-to-head, had to be disappointed when learning of their
five-seed.
The Wildcats were handed a gift in the South Region (although it remains to be
seen if they can capitalize on it), while the Owls have their work cut out for
them in the East.
Here is a breakdown of what to expect in all the regions, as the tournament
unfolds.
EAST: The Kentucky Wildcats earned a top-seed and rightfully so. John
Calipari's squad is oozing with talent, and there is little doubt that on the
biggest stage there is, youngsters like John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins will
shine. UK's half of the bracket features potential matchups with Texas, Temple
and or Wisconsin. None of those teams have the talent that Kentucky does and
the Wildcats should work their way into the Elite Eight with little to no
trouble. The bottom of the region is anchored by two-seed West Virginia. Bob
Huggins' Mountaineers are a solid squad at both ends of the floor and have a
flair for the dramatic, shown in their run to the Big East Tournament crown.
The biggest challenge in the bottom of the East may come from New Mexico. The
Lobos earned top-10 status this season, but still may be a little underrated
across the country. Other teams down low that could make some noise are
Missouri, Washington and Marquette. However, a Kentucky/West Virginia showdown
is likely, with the edge going to the team from Lexington.
SOUTH: The Duke Blue Devils may be the weakest top-seed in this event, but
Mike Krzyzewski's squad did win 29 games this year, capturing a share of the
ACC regular season title and then winning the ACC Tournament. OK, the ACC
isn't up to its lofty standards this season, but Duke is still a favorite to
get out of the region. The Blue Devils' half of the bracket lacks any real
pitfalls. Coach K's team gets Arkansas-Pine Bluff out of the gate, followed by
potential challenges in California or Louisville. Texas A&M is another
dangerous tournament team, while the winner of the Purdue/Siena matchup could
present a problem. The Boilermakers are not at full strength, while the 13th-
seeded Saints (27 wins) have a chance to be this year's Cinderella squad. The
bottom of the bracket features two-seed Villanova, but three-seed Baylor is
the popular pick to face off against Duke for the right to go to Indianapolis.
The Bears have dynamic scoring options highlighted by star guard LaceDarius
Dunn. Notre Dame caught fire down the stretch to earn entrance to the Big
Dance, but may not get past its first-round showdown with Old Dominion. 'Nova
will probably get past its first two opponents thanks to a favorable seeding,
but Baylor will end the Wildcats' bid at a second straight Final Four
appearance, setting up an Elite Eight matchup with Duke. The Blue Devils may
not be able to match Baylor's energy, as Scott Drew's squad packs its bags for
Indianapolis.
MIDWEST: Kansas is the top team in the country and certainly earned that
status, running away with the Big 12 championship yet again. However, the
selection committee did the Jayhawks no favors with perhaps the toughest field
among the four regions. The Midwest is full of obstacles for KU, which should
get tested in its half of the bracket, highlighted by a potential showdown
with Michigan State in the Sweet 16. There are a number of teams that could
emerge in the bottom half of the region to challenge Kansas for a spot in the
Final Four. Ohio State boasts perhaps the best player in the country in Evan
Turner, and the Buckeyes certainly have the resume (27 wins, Big Ten champs)
to
give Kansas a run for its money. However, Ohio State will not walk over
anyone,
with Tennessee, Georgetown and Oklahoma State making up a formidable bottom
half of the bracket. The Vols are one of two teams to top Kansas this year,
with the Cowboys being the other. The Hoyas are a physical team that can play
with anyone and possess a rugged center in Greg Monroe that can dominate in
the
middle. Still, Kansas is definitely tournament-tested, and possesses one of
the
game's top leaders in Sherron Collins. The Jayhawks will likely punch their
ticket to the Final Four, although it won't come easy.
WEST: Syracuse gets the top spot in the West and despite bowing out in the Big
East Tournament, the Orange remain the favorite to advance to the Final Four.
An Elite Eight appearance shouldn't be much of a problem, as Jim Boeheim's
squad is simply better than the rest of the field in its half of the bracket,
with or without the services of big man Arinze Onuaku (injured leg). A real
Cinderella could come in the form of Murray State. The Racers posted 30 wins
this year and could make some noise early on. The bottom half of the bracket
features two-seed Kansas State. The Wildcats had a highly successful season
(26 wins) and of their seven losses overall, three came to top-ranked Kansas,
including in the Big 12 Tournament title game. With dynamic guard play, Frank
Martin's squad has a chance to go far. BYU looms large in second-round play
and that showdown (providing the Cougars get past Florida) may just make
Jimmer Fredette a household name. BYU's explosive leader is among the nation's
top scorers and can carry the Cougars in this event. Pittsburgh, Minnesota and
Xavier all have the ability to win a couple of games, but none are likely to
advance beyond that. In the end, look for the Orange and Wildcats to square
off in the Elite Eight, and that is where the potential absence of Onuaku will
cost Syracuse.
When the dust clears. the Final Four will resemble the Big 12 Tournament, with
three of the team's representing that conference. Two one-seeds advance in
Kansas and Kentucky, while the other two come in the form of two-seed Kansas
State and three-seed Baylor.
John Calipari and Bill Self coached against one another in the NCAA
Championship game just two years ago and that one ended with Self and the
Jayhawks earning a memorable 75-68 overtime decision over Memphis. Self is
likely to get the win again this year. as Kansas' explosive playmakers and
veteran leadership will trump Kentucky's youthful talent base.
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Thursday it will host its first-ever primetime game on September 10, 2011
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Let's play two: Fredette carries BYU over Florida in extra time >>
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
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game slide.
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